Obamanomics 1

Here’s my favorite graph from the CalculatedRisk blog (click on all charts for a bigger view):

Relative Unemployment Feb 2012

Unemployment, Feb 2012, Calculated Risk Blog

This chart speaks for itself. It’s been 48 months since the previous employment peak and we are still in an employment recession. Moreover, as you can see, it is, by far, the worst since World War II.

But, you might say, the President inherited a mess and he didn’t know how bad things were. Well, first off, President Obama ran on a platform of being able to clean up the mess. And second, what, possibly, could he have learned about “how bad things were” after taking office that we didn’t all know already? What economic data could he know that we don’t, such as unemployment rates, housing data, stock prices, interest rates and on and on?

The graph, above, compares the current unemployment levels to past levels. This next graph is even more telling because it compares the Obama Administration to itself. It is a graph of what the administration predicted compared to what really happened.

Unemployment with and without the recovery plan

Hat tip to Geoff at Ace of Spades for inventing this based on forecasts by White House economic advisers Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein on January 10, 2009. Since then the chart has been presented at Innocent Bystanders, updated by the e21 blog and, created a fire storm, most recently, when James Pethokoukis published it. I’ve added a few data points myself to bring it up to date.

The important consideration, for me, is that this chart clearly demonstrates a disparity between a forecast and an actual result, or, put another way, between a hypothesis of what the economy needed and an experiment. It clearly demonstrates that the hypotheses was wrong.

A good scientist or engineer, or even a politician, learns something when his hypothesis is proven wrong. He change his approach.  Why would the Obama Administration not change course when confronted with such a massive failure of policy? I have my own hypothesis on that. I believe that the policy, a policy of greater control over the economy, of greater involvement by the Federal Government in our lives, was the goal. Fixing the economy was just an excuse to reduce our liberty for the benefit of the political class.

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3 Responses to “Obamanomics 1”

  1. Patrick Gage Says:

    Great graphs and great explanation. I’m sick of Obama constantly claiming that he didn’t know how bad it was and that we’d be far worse off without him. When you look at the real facts, it becomes obvious that he’s done a terrible job and sunk us far deeper than anyone could have imagined. Unemployment has been above 8% for his entire Presidency, and yet, he said with the stimulus we’d never have unemployment above 8%. But wait, he didn’t know it was this bad. Give me a break. Nice post and nice logic.

  2. July Jobs Report « Liberty Physics Says:

    […] a reminder, this is another graph I did in March. See the post to read all the attributions for the graph. I have not brought it up to date but […]

  3. July Jobs Report II « Liberty Physics Says:

    […] Just to remind you,  I first saw this graph done by Geoff at Ace of Spades based on forecasts by White House economic advisers Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein on January 10, 2009. Since then the chart has been presented at Innocent Bystanders, updated by the e21 blog and, created a fire storm when James Pethokoukis published it. I added a few data points myself to bring it up to date when I wrote Obamanomics I. […]

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