UnSkewed Polls: Romney up by 7.8%

Hat tip to World Net Daily for introducing me to UnSkewedPolls.com.

Today, UnSkewed analysis has Romney up by 7.8% averaging twelve mainstream polls.  How can this be? The media have been reporting Obama ahead by 10 points in many states. Here’s how. The major readjustment the UnSkewed site makes is to change the oversampling of Democrats typically done by other pollsters.

Of course, the number you assign to the oversampling is a judgement call. Some mainstream pollsters don’t seem to be trying to correct the inherent Democrat over-sample due to sampling adults who answer the phone. But there is a very big difference between sampling adults, registered voters and likely voters.

As the election draws closer you will probably see the polls tighten because the pollsters will want to maintain their credibility. To do that they will take care to sample likely voters rather than just random adults. But even deciding likely voters can be difficult. Many, if not most, pollsters who are counting only likely voters are using the 2008 rather than the 2010 election cycle voter demographics. But 2010 was a watershed year for Republicans thanks to the TEA Party influence. Is it more likely that 2008 or 2010 will apply this year, in 2012?

So what UnSkewed Polls does is readjust the existing polls for what, in their judgement, is the real demographic of likely voters. You’ll have to use your own judgement regarding their process. Dick Morris explains the polling issue here. If you want Morris’ take on the undecided voters you can check that out here.


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